Missouri State — 2026 schedule & results record 2-5 · model's picks 7-0 so far
Proj rating -12.6 · SOS -7.0 · Mean wins 4.9 · Picked 4-8 · Vegas 4.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Texas A&M | away | L 0–50 | +39.5 ✗ | -34.3 | 2% | L ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Lindenwood | home | W 48–14 | -16.75 ✓ | +18.4 | 86% | W ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Marshall | home | L 24–30 | +4 ✗ | -7.2 | 33% | L ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | SMU | away | L 24–34 | +30.5 ✓ | -23.6 | 8% | L ✓ | |
| 6 | Thu 10/08 | Western Kentucky | away | L 13–34 | -1.75 ✗ | -14.4 | 20% | L ✓ |
Western Kentucky -2.5 · WIN +18 |
| 7 | Wed 10/14 | Kennesaw State | home | W 24–21 | +2.5 ✓ | +3.0 | 57% | W ✓ |
Kennesaw State -3 · LOSS -20 |
| 8 | Tue 10/20 | Delaware | away | L 38–61 | +3 ✗ | -5.1 | 38% | L ✓ |
Delaware +0 · WIN +20 Delaware -3 · WIN +27 |
| 9 | Tue 10/27 | Sam Houston | home | — | -5.5 | +8.7 | 70% | W | |
| 10 | Sat 11/07 | Florida International | away | — | — | -7.6 | 33% | L | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | New Mexico State | home | — | — | +4.6 | 60% | W | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Jacksonville State | away | — | — | -6.9 | 34% | L | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | Liberty | home | — | — | -1.5 | 45% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.